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Intelligence: 5 ideas from MIT courses

Intelligence is the part of the system that learns. A running machine collects data, and data used well makes the next run smarter.

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01The ideas

5 ideas, each with its MIT course.

01

Every decision is a prediction. Analytics makes it honest.

Under every choice (which lead to call, which offer to run) sits a forecast. Analytics swaps the gut version for one you can check. Then you compare the prediction with what happened, and update.

In practice: A model is only as honest as its data. A confident prediction on bad data is worse than a hunch you knew to doubt.

The Analytics Edge · MIT 15.071 · spring 2017 (Prof. Dimitris Bertsimas)

02

A model that only learns from itself overfits.

Overfitting is memorizing the quirks of a small sample, so the model fails on anything new. The cure is more data, and more varied data. One business is a sample of one market; a network of similar businesses is broader.

In practice: More data helps only if it’s relevant. Unrelated businesses add noise. The edge comes from many owners solving a similar problem.

Introduction to Machine Learning · MIT 6.036 · fall 2020 (Profs. Kaelbling & Lozano-Pérez)

03

Predict, then optimize. They are 2 steps, not one.

First predict what is likely. Then choose the best action within your limits. A forecast that never becomes a decision is just a dashboard. Most of the value is in the step that changes Monday.

In practice: The result is only as good as the goal you set. Optimize for booked calls and you may get cheap, unqualified ones.

The Analytics Edge · MIT 15.071 · spring 2017 (Prof. Dimitris Bertsimas)

04

Most of what customers say is text. A model can read it.

Replies, reviews and form notes are messy language, and intent hides there. Text analytics lets a model read, sort and rank every message by how likely it is to buy: the qualify step, done by machine.

In practice: A sarcastic “great” is easy to misread. Keep a person on edge cases, and treat the score as a ranking.

The Analytics Edge · MIT 15.071 · spring 2017 (Prof. Dimitris Bertsimas)

05

“Smarter model” claims rest on statistical inference.

Inference estimates the truth from limited, noisy data, and says how sure it is. It is why a model can be trusted at all. Support vector machines, boosting and Bayesian models draw that estimate in different ways.

In practice: A claim with no measure of doubt is a guess dressed as a fact. State how confident the model is, and on how much data.

Machine Learning · MIT 6.867 · fall 2006 (Prof. Tommi Jaakkola)

02In our work

Where this shows up in our work.

AI can already answer calls, book jobs and build reports. But it only works on what it can reach. An AI-native business lets AI see every job, order and dollar, whatever its age. So every app you pick is now an AI choice.

03Start

Start with the map. It’s free.

This is the thinking. The machine is the work. A 20-minute call shows where to start. You keep the written plan, whether you hire us or not.

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contact@paperst.ai · (747) 745-5837